Predictions
Predictions that start with the injury report
Most picks are written as if every star is healthy. Ours start one step earlier, with the only question that changes a game before it starts: who is actually playing?
How we make a pick
1. Who is actually playing
A pick made before the injury picture is clear is a guess. We start with the status board: a star receiver who is questionable changes a game more than any stat line.
2. Matchups, not names
A strong pass rush against a hurt offensive line matters more than a team's record. We look for the one matchup that can bend the whole game.
3. Place and weather
Home field, travel, and — for outdoor games — wind and rain. Indoors, like Rams at Raiders in Las Vegas, takes weather off the table and puts the focus back on the players.
This Week's Talking Points
Rams at Raiders
It starts with two receivers
Davante Adams is out, on injured reserve. Puka Nacua is questionable. If Nacua plays, the Rams passing game looks close to normal. If he sits too, it is a very different offense, and a very different game.
Ravens vs Bengals
One quarterback decides the week
Lamar Jackson at full speed is one kind of Ravens team. Jackson at half speed, or Tyler Huntley starting again, is another. Our pick on this game waits for the inactive list, and we are fine saying so.
We publish picks for reading and talking points, not betting advice. Lines move, players sit, and any pick can be wrong by halftime. That is football.
Game-day status alerts, in plain words
One short email on game mornings: the big names who are in, the ones who are out, and the channel for each game. No noise.